How do I bear up in a Bear Market?

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If you are an investor who remembers the mortgage debt crisis of 2008-9, you know that the market lost significant value. From an investment standpoint, the real downside occurred precisely when some investors sold off their equity holdings due to fear mid-way or near the end of the market devaluation.

Hindsight is 20-20. The people who financially survived this market anomaly were the ones who did not sell their good stocks and equities held by investment funds. Many risk-averse investors who may have been tempted to sell but did not, in the long run, received a blessing in disguise! They had an opportunity to hold on and patiently watch their funds’ unit values increase again in one of the most extended bull market periods to 2014.

Investor risk is part of life in this world. Geopolitics, macro- and microeconomics, corporate banking and national solvency pose a significant financial risk to the world’s capital markets. Massive debt held collectively by individuals, companies or sovereign nations can indirectly affect currencies, bond markets, and interest rates.

Bull and Bear markets are cyclic. The nature of the market is cyclic. If there is a hurricane warning, you know it is coming and don’t pitch your tent near the beach. Yet, with the stock market, you rarely know when a correction or a bear market is coming (when the stock markets decline 15-20% in value for some time). Investment fund managers will work to retain your value while looking forward to the markets’ recovery in these periods. The intelligent investor who is well-studied and cautious is nevertheless a risk taker, realising that one must hold on to investments patiently until the stocks in the fund portfolio regain any lost value and enter a rising bull market period.

The market moves in mysterious ways. Though the major world stock markets went through a correction in early 2015, we saw some significant markets in North America break records. On March 12, 2015,  for example, though four of our Canadian banks were down below 10-17% from their 52-week high, the Canadian TSX was only a quarter of a per cent below on the same day.  This shows how various sectors can be in or out of favour and move up and down due to market concerns. Despite the TSX doing well, on March 12, 2015, the TSX Energy sector was down 38% due to the oil prices dropping worldwide, presently a great time to buy when stock prices are lower in energy-related investments.

Moving money in a family of funds Most funds allow you to carry a portion or all of your money into the money market, bond, and balanced funds amidst an investment fund family (those offered by the same company), or your advisor may be able to move them into an alternate investment vehicle.

Buy more fund units when prices drop. Consider seeking opportunities among bargain-priced investment fund units. In this way, wealth can be created when buying stocks of many companies held by investment funds when they are priced lower. If you take this strategy, you must be ready to stay invested over the long haul.

An effective Dollar cost averaging (DCA) strategy can win. This involves buying fund units at regular intervals and investing the same amount of money each time. Thus, you buy more fund units when the value is lower and fewer when higher. DCA is the wisest investment strategy to utilise during a long-term bear market because you increasingly purchase more fund units at lower prices. If you need to get more familiar with the benefits of that concept, please feel free to talk to your investment fund representative.

As you realise the risk of investing in producing long-term gain and beating inflation, you can make bear markets work for you if you are patient. This is because a bear market paves the way to the next bull market when rising prices may take your investment funds higher in value.

Why is inflation a risk to my retirement income?

Statistics Canada releases inflation figures regularly to determine the health of the Canadian economy. Increasing inflation indicates that the economy’s overall prices are rising. On the upside, this means there is good economic growth pushing these numbers higher. Some inflation is necessary to a vigorous economy. Fast increases in the index percentile can spark the Bank of Canada to raise our interest rates to keep the costs of goods and services in check.

When you go to the pumps or to the grocery store, ask yourself, “will my retirement investment portfolio create sufficient income to pay for all these rising expenses?” Only by accumulating assets in your pre-retirement years, will you be able to increase your net worth, which can lead you to financial independence. The cost of our basic retirement needs will increase.

Investing to beat Inflation is a constant battle.

The importance of the economic fact of inflation may not be obvious. “What does the fish know about the water in which it swims?” asked Albert Einstein. Over the years, inflation has radically reduced our buying power. Interest rates when increasing as a policy to combat (reduce) inflation can also increase our debt repayment load as a percentage of income putting a strain on our budgets. In this respect, both inflation and interest on the debt are the foremost enemies of wealth creation.

 

How inflation is calculated Canada’s national statistics are weighted to reveal increases for the basket of goods and services in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).1 Consumer spending patterns for 12 months up to October 2021, can be seen by visiting Statistics Canada. 

Three of the eight major components saw unprecedented growth in their basket weights, the statistics agency said, led by shelter representing soaring house prices during the pandemic–the highest-weighted major component, which grew to 30% as a share of the basket. The share of the household operations, furnishings and equipment component grew to 15.21% and alcoholic beverages, tobacco products and recreational cannabis went up 4.86%. The Bank of Canada targets overall weighted inflation at 2%, with a 1%-3% control range. 2

You can get ahead of inflation now by investing. A healthy investment fund portfolio can give you a sense of financial security, earned by continued discipline and adherence to the principle of saving, which adds to our sense of personal dignity.

Saving on a month to month basis while purchasing investment fund units can help you realize your goals and objectives in life (such as acquiring a home, making major purchases, travelling, putting children through college or university, or going back to school yourself). Finally, your investments must outpace inflation—the rising cost of goods and services—the investor’s worst future enemy. Ask your financial specialist to do a complete analysis of your retirement income potential.

1 StatsCan

2 Reuters